Story Summary
Dan Rosen’s National Hockey List ranks the six teams that missed the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs with the best chance to qualify in 2026-27. The order is Florida Panthers, Washington Capitals, San Jose Sharks, Toronto Maple Leafs, St. Louis Blues and New Jersey Devils, with roster changes, goaltending situations and statistical context behind each selection.
Key Facts
- The Panthers are already No. 4 in the first pre-season Super 16 power rankings referenced by Rosen.
- Florida’s 2025-26 season was derailed when Aleksander Barkov suffered a season-ending knee injury in training camp, Rosen writes; Barkov is back for 2026-27 and Brady Tkachuk has joined the roster.
- Sergei Bobrovsky is no longer in Florida; Jacob Markstrom has returned to the Panthers organisation.
- The Capitals had 95 points last season and missed the playoffs by three points; Rosen expects Washington to clear 100 points in 84 games and make the postseason.
- Washington added forwards Alex Tuch, Jordan Kyrou and Boone Jenner, and Rosen notes a healthier Pierre-Luc Dubois as a factor.
- Rosen highlights the Capitals’ size up front with Ilya Protas joining brother Aliaksei Protas and lists several big forwards and defencemen including Vincent Desharnais and Jakob Chychrun.
- San Jose won 39 games and had 86 points last season, improving by 19 wins and 34 points from 2024-25; Rosen says the Sharks could end a seven-season playoff drought.
- Macklin Celebrini scored 45 goals and 70 assists for 115 points in 82 games last season, per Rosen; Rosen also cites Will Smith, Michael Misa, Collin Graf and possible impact from No. 2 pick Ivar Stenberg.
- San Jose’s defence additions include Jacob Trouba, Darnell Nurse and Michael Kesselring alongside Dmitry Orlov and Sam Dickinson; Rosen notes the Sharks allowed 3.54 goals per game last season (30th in the League).
- The Maple Leafs missed the playoffs last season for the first time since 2016, Rosen writes; Toronto signed Sergei Bobrovsky to a three-year contract in the off-season and added Darren Raddysh on an eight-year deal after his 70-point season (22 goals, 48 assists) in 73 games with Tampa Bay last year (per Rosen).
IHM Discussion
Rosen’s list links each club’s short-term playoff prospects to roster changes and clear issues from 2025-26. Florida sits first after Aleksander Barkov’s return from a training-camp knee injury, the arrival of Brady Tkachuk and Jacob Markstrom’s move into the crease. Washington’s case rests on forward additions Alex Tuch, Jordan Kyrou and Boone Jenner, along with a sizeable forward and defensive group. San Jose brings statistical momentum and young talent after a 19-win improvement, but must improve on the 3.54 goals per game it allowed last season. Toronto is more conditional: Rosen identifies Sergei Bobrovsky as a key addition, while noting his difficult 2025-26 campaign. St. Louis narrowly missed out and needs better special teams, while New Jersey has a high ceiling if its goaltending becomes a positive.
Why It Matters
The list offers a pre-season guide to teams that could reshape the playoff field. Rosen notes that, since the current format began in 2013-14, an average of 5.5 teams per season have reached the postseason after missing it the previous year; last season brought six-team turnover. Those potential returners could alter divisional races and displace incumbent playoff clubs.
Fan Pulse
Optimism and apprehension will coexist in these markets. Florida fans can point to Barkov’s return and Tkachuk’s arrival as tangible reasons for renewed confidence; Washington supporters will celebrate the physical upgrades and scoring additions that might convert close misses into post-season berths. San Jose’s fanbase can tout both the 39-win turnaround and Macklin Celebrini’s elite numbers as signs that a playoff return is realistic. Toronto fans face suspense: the Bobrovsky signing creates expectations of stabilised goaltending, but his poor prior season leaves chatter about ‘sink or swim’ stakes in early results. St. Louis followers will watch special teams closely, while Devils fans will be hopeful about forward talent but know the club’s fate may hinge on improved goaltending.
Mini Q&A
Who authored the list of top comeback candidates?
The list was written by Dan Rosen.
Which team does Rosen rank as most likely to return to the playoffs?
Rosen ranks the Florida Panthers first on his list of teams likely to qualify in 2026-27.
What are the key reasons Rosen gives for the Panthers being top pick?
Rosen cites Aleksander Barkov’s return from a season-ending knee injury, the arrival of Brady Tkachuk and Jacob Markstrom’s return to Florida, along with a No. 4 pre-season Super 16 ranking.
How many games will each team play in the 2026-27 regular season?
Rosen notes the schedule will be 84 games per team this season instead of 82.
Which team on the list had the biggest single-season improvement last year?
The San Jose Sharks improved by 19 wins and 34 points from 2024-25 to last season, finishing with 39 wins and 86 points.
What concern does Rosen flag most clearly for the Maple Leafs and Devils?
Rosen highlights goaltending as the principal concern for both Toronto and New Jersey.
Coach Mark Comment
The common thread is that each club has a specific area to turn into standings points. Florida must restore its rhythm with Barkov back, Washington has added depth and size, and San Jose needs its new blue-line group to help limit goals against. St. Louis has a clear special-teams target, while Toronto and New Jersey will need dependable goaltending to support their attacking talent.
What Comes Next
Early-season goaltending performance, the Panthers’ health with Aleksander Barkov back, Sergei Bobrovsky’s form in Toronto and whether San Jose’s defensive additions reduce their goals-against rate are explicit checkpoints Rosen identifies as decisive.
IHM Final View
Rosen’s list is a pre-season snapshot built around roster moves, returning personnel and last season’s statistical gaps. Florida is his clearest candidate to return, with Washington and San Jose next on the strength of additions and recent progress. Toronto, St. Louis and New Jersey each have plausible but more conditional routes back to the playoffs.