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NHL One-Month Shock Meter | IHM Performance Metrics

Date: November 15, 2025 - Author: IHM News

The opening month of the 2025-26 NHL campaign has already shredded more than one preseason prediction sheet. Teams we expected to chase lottery odds are sitting in playoff spots, and established contenders are leaning on unlikely heroes just to stay afloat. The same story runs through the player level: some skaters and goalies have rocketed out of the gate with elite numbers, while a few household names are still stuck in preseason gear. Below, IHM Performance Metrics walks through one month of shocks - ten unexpectedly strong starts and five big names searching for answers - with context, usage notes and what the underlying numbers tell us about whether these trends can actually last.

Shockingly Strong Starts

Brad Marchand, Florida Panthers (LW)

2025-26 stats: 15 GP | 11 G | 7 A

Florida was supposed to be hanging on by its fingernails while Aleksander Barkov and Matthew Tkachuk rehab. Instead, Brad Marchand has walked into South Florida and behaved like it is 2017 again. Eleven goals in fifteen games is top-line production on any contender, but the context makes it even louder: he has been the focal point of a forward group missing both of its franchise cornerstones and still finding line chemistry on the fly.

Marchand has driven play with several different linemates, toggling between a puck-retrieval role with Anton Lundell and Eetu Luostarinen and a shooting role higher in the lineup next to Carter Verhaeghe and Sam Bennett. His small-area hands around the net and on the power play remain elite; defenders simply cannot get the puck off him on short possession plays below the dots. For a 37-year-old winger to carry this much of the offensive burden in back-to-back seasons after a deep Cup run is exactly why Florida’s front office was comfortable committing term on his contract.

Leo Carlsson, Anaheim Ducks (C)

2025-26 stats: 16 GP | 11 G | 15 A

Anaheim’s rebuild has an undisputed centerpiece now. After two seasons of careful deployment and sheltered minutes, Leo Carlsson has been turned loose under coach Joel Quenneville, and the Ducks immediately look like a modern puck-control team built around a dominant first-line center. Twenty-six points in sixteen games only tell part of the story.

With Carlsson on the ice at five-on-five, Anaheim is living with the puck. The Ducks are controlling close to sixty percent of shot attempts and scoring chances, a massive step up from Carlsson’s first two seasons when those numbers hovered around break-even. He is touching everything on the power play as well, already collecting nine points with the extra skater on a unit that sat near the bottom of the league last year. His ability to extend offensive-zone time - winning pucks back, protecting them on the wall, then attacking seams - is the engine behind Anaheim’s rise up the Pacific standings.

Scott Wedgewood, Colorado Avalanche (G)

2025-26 stats: 14 GP | 2.26 GAA | .913 SV%

Colorado opened the season without its presumed number-one goalie, Mackenzie Blackwood, and could easily have stumbled out of the gate. Instead, Scott Wedgewood has turned a stop-gap assignment into a statement run. The 33-year-old journeyman has posted a 10-1-2 record with a .913 save percentage and 2.26 goals-against average, stabilising the back end for a club that expects to chase another Presidents’ Trophy.

The Avalanche score enough that their goalies rarely need to be perfect, but Wedgewood’s workload has not been a passenger ride. He has already saved roughly six goals above expected by IHM’s shot-quality model, cleaning up breakdowns when Colorado’s aggressive defence pinches and plays break the wrong way. Even as Blackwood returns, Wedgewood has likely earned a real share of the crease - and given the Avs something they did not have last year: a backup who can bank points on his own.

Kiefer Sherwood, Vancouver Canucks (RW)

2025-26 stats: 18 GP | 11 G | 1 A

Every season produces at least one “this cannot possibly be sustainable” scoring line. This year’s early leader is Kiefer Sherwood. The Vancouver winger has 11 goals in his first 18 games, with only a single assist to his name. Almost every contribution on the scoresheet has been the puck coming directly off his stick and into the net.

Sherwood is riding an outrageous shooting percentage near thirty percent, which will cool off, but his impact is more than random finishing luck. He plays straight-line, north-south hockey, exploding into soft ice between the circles and constantly arriving in scoring areas on time. On a Canucks team that can sometimes over-pass on entries, his “shoot first” mentality has given their forwards a different look. Contract-year motivation is real, and Vancouver suddenly has to price out what this kind of heater - and a growing cult-hero following - will mean on his next deal.

Dawson Mercer, New Jersey Devils (LW)

2025-26 stats: 17 GP | 9 G | 7 A

Two seasons ago, Dawson Mercer looked like a future cornerstone after a 27-goal breakout. The follow-up campaigns were frustratingly uneven, marked by streaky offence and difficulty sticking in the top six. One month into 2025-26, the Devils are seeing the player they believed they had locked up long term.

Mercer has re-established himself on a scoring line with Nico Hischier and Timo Meier, producing nine goals and seven assists while posting a team-best plus-9 rating. He is attacking with more pace through the neutral zone and closing quicker on pucks in his own end, which has earned him extra defensive-zone starts - a clear trust signal from the coaching staff. The tools were never in doubt; the difference this year is consistency in his off-puck routes and a willingness to get to the inside rather than living on the perimeter.

Dan Vladar, Philadelphia Flyers (G)

2025-26 stats: 10 GP | 2.15 GAA | .919 SV%

Goaltending stability has been a running joke in Philadelphia for years. Dan Vladar is doing his best to retire that punchline. Signed as a value free agent after an up-and-down run in Calgary, the 28-year-old has walked into a heavy-workload situation and turned it into one of the league’s best early bargains.

Through ten appearances, Vladar owns a .919 save percentage, a 2.15 goals-against average and six goals saved above expected. His calm, economical game has been a perfect match for Rick Tocchet’s structure: minimal extra movement, controlled rebounds and patience on east-west plays that burned the Flyers repeatedly last year. With Philly sitting in the early wild-card mix, it is hard to argue any single player has been more valuable to their start.

Spencer Knight, Chicago Blackhawks (G)

2025-26 stats: 12 GP | 2.46 GAA | .923 SV%

Chicago’s defensive environment is still a work in progress, but Spencer Knight is making sure their mistakes are not fatal. Acquired from Florida in the Seth Jones trade, the former Panthers blue-chip prospect has quietly rebuilt his profile in the Windy City with a superb first month.

Knight’s .923 save percentage and 2.46 goals-against average are backed by strong underlying numbers. He leads the league in goals saved above expected, and the Blackhawks have dramatically reduced the volume of high-danger goals against compared to last season when he is in net. Chicago’s new coaching staff has implemented an aggressive defensive-zone system that can occasionally leave seams exposed; Knight’s ability to track lateral movement and hold his edges has turned several would-be breakdowns into routine saves.

Matthew Schaefer, New York Islanders (D)

2025-26 stats: 16 GP | 5 G | 7 A

First overall picks rarely step into the NHL as polished, two-way defencemen. Matthew Schaefer is making it look that way on Long Island. The 18-year-old has jumped straight into top-four minutes, averaging more than twenty-two minutes per night while chipping in five goals and seven assists.

The Islanders score nearly sixty percent of the goals with Schaefer on the ice at five-on-five, and six of his points have come on a power play that has climbed out of the league cellar. He is not being protected, either: barely half of his shifts start in the offensive zone. Between his poise on breakouts and his ability to walk the blue line under pressure, Schaefer has given New York exactly what they have missed since their blue line started to age out - a high-ceiling, puck-moving defender who can also close physically.

Josh Doan, Buffalo Sabres (RW)

2025-26 stats: 16 GP | 4 G | 5 A

Very little has gone to script in Buffalo’s hunt for a long-awaited playoff return, but Josh Doan has been a genuine positive. Acquired from Utah in the JJ Peterka deal, Doan has carved out a middle-six role and produced nine points in sixteen games on a team still trying to find steady goaltending and structure.

The son of Coyotes legend Shane Doan brings a heavier, two-way dimension to the Sabres’ lineup. His ice time has climbed by almost two minutes per game compared to last season, and his shot volume has spiked: at five-on-five he is generating nearly ten shots on goal per sixty minutes, up significantly from his Utah numbers. Add in expanded power-play usage, and Doan is quietly pushing himself into the conversation for a bigger offensive role if Buffalo can stabilise around him.

Shea Theodore, Vegas Golden Knights (D)

2025-26 stats: 15 GP | 0 G | 6 A

Not all standout performances show up on the goal chart. When Alex Pietrangelo stepped away from the game to rehab a chronic hip issue, Vegas needed a new defensive anchor. Shea Theodore, long the Knights’ second pillar, has absorbed that challenge and turned in one of the most efficient defensive months in the league.

Theodore’s offensive line - six assists in fifteen games - looks ordinary until you dig deeper. His five-on-five goals-against rate sits under 0.90 per sixty minutes, putting him in an exclusive group of shutdown defencemen allowing fewer than a goal per full game of ice time. He is facing top competition nightly and starting a significant share of his shifts outside the offensive zone, yet Vegas tilts the ice in its favour whenever he and Brayden McNabb are over the boards. In a year of change, that kind of reliability has kept the Golden Knights’ defensive identity intact.

Shockingly Slow Starts

Marco Kasper, Detroit Red Wings (F)

2025-26 stats: 16 GP | 3 G | 0 A

After a promising rookie campaign, Marco Kasper was pencilled in as the third scoring threat on a second line with Alex DeBrincat and Patrick Kane. One month in, that experiment is on hold. The 2022 eighth-overall pick has only three goals and has yet to record an assist, skating to a minus-6 and recently sliding down to the third line.

The tools that made Kasper a top prospect - tenacity, straight-line speed, willingness to attack the middle - are still there, but his timing inside the offensive zone looks off. Detroit’s staff has noted a drop in his battle level and a tendency to arrive late on support routes, which has stalled cycles and limited his touches in dangerous areas. This is a classic second-year adjustment test; if he can simplify, get to the net front and win more fifty-fifty pucks, the production will follow. For now, expectations outpace the box score.

Sam Montembeault, Montreal Canadiens (G)

2025-26 stats: 9 GP | 3.52 GAA | .861 SV%

On a Montreal team still learning how to manage games, there was always pressure on the goaltending tandem. Jakob Dobes has answered the bell with strong numbers; Sam Montembeault has gone the other way. Through nine outings, the veteran netminder is sitting on a 3.52 goals-against average and an .861 save percentage, with one of the worst goals-saved-above-expected totals in the league.

The Canadiens give up their share of high-danger looks, but the gap between Dobes’ performance and Montembeault’s points to more than defensive issues. Montembeault has struggled to track traffic through layered screens and has been beaten too often clean from distance, particularly to the blocker side. Montreal does not need him to be an All-Star; they just need league-average. Getting there quickly would stabilise a group that otherwise has shown signs of progress.

Brayden Point, Tampa Bay Lightning (C)

2025-26 stats: 16 GP | 3 G | 6 A

Over the past three seasons, only a handful of players have scored more goals than Brayden Point, which makes his opening month line - three goals, six assists and a minus-11 rating - stand out for all the wrong reasons. On a Lightning team that still expects to score its way out of trouble, their most reliable finisher has yet to find his usual attacking rhythm.

Point’s shot generation has dipped sharply. His individual attempts per sixty minutes at five-on-five are well below his recent two-year average, and his shot on goal rate has followed. Whether it is a small injury, timing with new linemates or simply a cold stretch, Tampa Bay needs him attacking downhill again. History suggests the production will rebound - skating next to Nikita Kucherov is a good cure for most slumps - but for now, his start qualifies as one of the month’s bigger surprises.

Steven Stamkos, Nashville Predators (C)

2025-26 stats: 18 GP | 3 G | 1 A

Steven Stamkos has built a career on scoring in bunches. That is why his first month in Nashville looks so strange on the stat sheet: three goals, one assist and stretches of play where he rarely appears as a sustained threat. For a player with more than 580 career goals, that projects to a pace well below what both he and the Predators envisioned when he arrived.

The shot still pops off his stick, but Stamkos is not getting to his traditional shooting lanes as often, and Nashville’s power play has yet to consistently run through him on the flank. Mentally, he has talked about trying to avoid the spiral of negative self-talk that can drag a slump out. The Predators must decide whether to keep feeding him prime minutes in the hope that the dam finally breaks, or to rebalance usage if this stretch continues.

MacKenzie Weegar, Calgary Flames (D)

2025-26 stats: 18 GP | 0 G | 4 A

The Flames’ early-season struggles have many causes, but MacKenzie Weegar’s quiet offensive line is near the top of the list. After back-to-back seasons north of 45 points, the veteran defenceman sits on just four assists through eighteen games and a worrying minus-17 rating.

Calgary’s five-on-five scoring rate with Weegar on the ice has cratered, and constant shuffling of defensive partners has not helped. He has already logged at least ten minutes with seven different blue-line colleagues as the coaching staff searches for chemistry. The transition game that usually drives Calgary’s attack has looked disjointed, with more failed exits and fewer clean entries coming off his stick. For a team sitting last in goals per game, a return to form from their most reliable two-way defenceman would change the trajectory quickly.

IHM Verdict

• Most sustainable surge: Leo Carlsson’s usage and underlying numbers suggest a true breakout, not a mirage.
• Biggest swing factor: Dan Vladar’s play could single-handedly keep Philadelphia in the Eastern wildcard hunt.
• Regression candidate: Kiefer Sherwood’s finishing will cool, but his shot volume should still deliver a career year.
• Slump most likely to flip: Brayden Point’s track record and shot profile make a second-quarter scoring binge extremely likely.
• Most concerning trend: MacKenzie Weegar’s minus-17 highlights a systems problem in Calgary, not just bad luck.

Questions & Answers | IHM Performance Metrics

Which breakout performance should teams trust the most?

Leo Carlsson’s combination of heavy minutes, strong possession numbers and power-play role makes his early production the most bankable. Even if his shooting percentage slides, the volume of touches and chances points to a true top-tier center.

Are any of the hot goalies likely to cool off dramatically?

Scott Wedgewood and Dan Vladar both play behind aggressive systems that occasionally leak chances, but their current save percentages are supported by improved defensive play in front of them. Expect some regression, but not a collapse unless team structure falls apart.

Which struggling star should fans be least worried about?

Brayden Point stands out. His career scoring rate, power-play role and chemistry with Nikita Kucherov give him multiple paths back to elite numbers. A small uptick in shot volume will swing his counting stats quickly.

Whose slump sends the loudest warning sign?

MacKenzie Weegar’s numbers are tied directly to Calgary’s broader issues. Until the Flames stabilise their pairings and offensive identity, it is hard to see his production snapping back to previous levels.

How should fantasy and betting markets react to these first-month shocks?

Short term, there is value in buying into sustainable breakouts such as Carlsson, Marchand and Mercer before their prices fully adjust. Long term, IHM Performance Metrics recommends treating extreme shooting heaters and unusually low percentages with caution; the league has a long history of pulling players back toward their established baselines.

More NHL analysis and performance breakdowns are available daily on IHM.