Milan 2026 in Trouble? Why the NHL Could Still Pull Its Players
December 2025 | IHM News
Sochi 2014. The last time Olympic hockey truly delivered what it is supposed to be: best on best. Since then, twelve years have passed. A full generation has changed, and the sport itself has become faster, heavier, and more expensive at the top end.
Connor McDavid went from a promising junior to a living NHL legend without playing a single second on the Olympic stage. Auston Matthews rewrote goal-scoring standards but never wore a USA jersey at the main tournament of the four-year cycle. Twelve years of waiting. Twelve years of promises. And now, with less than two months to go, clouds are gathering again over Milan 2026.
Groups, format, and the risk of an early exit
The tournament format and group stage already raise questions. One scenario being discussed is that a group featuring Sweden could theoretically push Canada into an extra qualification game, where a single random bounce against a team like Latvia could end a favorite’s run.
But the bigger intrigue is deeper. For the first time in a long time, Team USA does not look like a dark horse. They look like a potential favorite. Their overall roster depth, especially on defense, is arguably stronger than Canada’s right now. And it is not crazy to think the USA could win Olympic gold for the first time since 1980.
Why the NHL revealed early “first six” lists
In the summer of 2025, top national teams began naming their initial “first six” players for the Olympics. This is not a cosmetic announcement. It is a foundation. Coaches like Mike Sullivan for the USA and Jon Cooper for Canada gain the ability to build structure around specific core players early.
But there is a downside. Visibility. Throughout December 2025, one question keeps returning: what if Sidney Crosby gets hurt? At 38, Crosby is still elite. His presence is not only leadership. It is still goals and results.
Canada leaned into proven experience. The USA leaned into young predators. It is also telling that the Americans left the goaltender slot open in their early core, keeping flexibility because they have an abundance of top-end talent in net. Canada’s situation is the opposite.
The Olympic pause: who benefits and what it costs
The NHL will officially stop the regular season for 17 days. For commissioner Gary Bettman, that is painful business: 17 days without games impacts revenue tied to broadcasts and advertising.
The positives are clear. Roughly 80% of the league will not go to Milan and will get a mini break. Veterans can reset and load up for a playoff push. The Olympics also create a spike in attention: people who do not watch a regular Toronto versus Edmonton night will pay to see McDavid battle Matthews on the biggest stage.
The negatives are serious. Injury risk. Jet lag. Players return from Italy on February 23, and some will be back in NHL buildings two days later. Historically, teams that sent large Olympic contingents in 2006 and 2014 saw a measurable dip right after the Games, losing roughly 15% more points on average in the first month back.
The December 2025 controversy: ice safety becomes the main issue
In early December 2025, NHL deputy commissioner Bill Daly delivered a hard message: the league will not send players if the ice is not safe.
The focus is the Santa Giulia arena project in Milan. Reports suggest the concrete base was poured to dimensions that are shorter than standard NHL ice. The difference is close to one meter. On paper, that sounds minor. On ice, it can become a risk multiplier.
NHL players train for years with rink geometry in their bodies. On a shorter surface, puck rebound angles change, space disappears faster, and contact density rises. Some estimates suggest the frequency of heavy collisions could increase by 12 to 15 percent. That turns Olympic hockey into a survival derby instead of a technical showcase.
For McDavid, the quote is simple: ice size does not matter to him. For Bettman, it is a business exposure. December has felt like a quiet war. The NHL is pushing for board modifications and special shock-absorbing systems. Italy’s organizers point to budget reality: costs have reportedly already blown out by billions of euros. If no compromise is found by the New Year, the trip to Milan could be at real risk.
Who to watch in February
McDavid and Nathan MacKinnon. Their first Olympics. Their career peak. They need gold to stand in the same legacy line as Crosby.
Team USA look like the most balanced roster at the tournament, with no obvious holes in attack, defense, or goaltending depth.
Canada may leave young stars out. Connor Bedard and Macklin Celebrini could miss the final roster despite elite upside, depending on health and selection philosophy. Germany, meanwhile, is no longer a one-star story. They can turn a single game into a real problem for any favorite.
🧠 Coach Mark Comment
Milan 2026 is a pressure point between hockey and business. The format, the ice, and the season pause create real risk. If safety guarantees are not solved quickly, the NHL will not compromise. In the league’s logic, a player is an asset first, and a symbol second.
❓ Q&A
Can the NHL realistically skip the Olympics?
Yes, if arena and ice safety issues are not resolved by the internal deadline.
Why did ice dimensions become the critical factor?
Because geometry affects rebound angles, decision time, collision density, and therefore injury probability.
Who looks like the main favorite right now?
At the moment, Team USA, due to roster balance and depth across positions.