Story Summary
Five NHL players posted results that lagged behind their underlying numbers in 2025-26. Nico Hischier, Brandon Tanev, Tomas Hertl, William Eklund and Anders Lee each had a case for better fortune, whether through missed finishing, poor on-ice goaltending or both. They enter the new season looking for a rebound.
Key Facts
- List derived from Evolving Hockey data and restricted to players with at least 500 total minutes of ice time.
- Nico Hischier (centre, New Jersey Devils) scored 28 goals against 35.1 expected goals. New Jersey scored 52% of goals with him on the ice, while his on-ice goals-for percentage was more than five percentage points below his expected-goals-for percentage. His linemates failed to convert nearly 34 expected goals with him on the ice, and New Jersey’s goaltending struggled behind him.
- Brandon Tanev (left wing, Utah Mammoth) missed time with injury and played 56 games, recording just three assists; he generated 5.3 expected goals but scored zero goals; when on the ice Utah was outscored 25-9 but expected goals suggested a closer margin of about 25-20; his personal shooting percentage was 0.0; his linemates produced a combined shooting percentage of 4.9%, the lowest in the league; his on-ice save percentage was.885 and his PDO was 93.4, with only six players lower.
- Tanev’s career totals entering that season were 84 goals in 608 NHL games, emphasising his usual role as a depth, non-primary offensive option.
- Tomas Hertl (centre, Vegas Golden Knights) scored 24 goals in 2025-26 after scoring 32 goals in nine fewer games the previous season; his shooting percentage last season was 11.8% versus a career mark of 13.9%; he generated 39.1 expected goals, scoring 15 fewer goals than expected; Vegas goalies posted a combined.843 save percentage behind him.
- William Eklund (left wing, traded from San Jose Sharks to Ottawa Senators) had the sixth-lowest on-ice save percentage in the league at .840 over roughly 1,446 minutes; Sharks goalies allowed about 14 more goals than expected when he was on the ice; Eklund recorded 15 goals and 38 assists for 53 points while scoring those 15 goals on more than 25 expected goals; his on-ice result was 89 goals for on 99.1 expected goals, a shortfall of 10 goals; his shooting percentage was 8.5% versus a career average of 11.5%.
- The five players were characterised as heading into the upcoming season hoping for better bounces and potential rebounds from poor on-ice luck, whether through shooting variance or goaltending behind them.
IHM Discussion
The common thread across this group is the gap between chance quality and the final scoreline. Hischier, Hertl, Eklund, Tanev and Lee all had evidence of results falling short of the opportunity or on-ice environment around them. Tanev and Lee endured particularly stark finishing shortfalls, while Eklund’s on-ice results were also weighed down by San Jose’s goaltending. The figures point to variance as a meaningful part of the picture, though they cannot by themselves rule out longer-term change.
Why It Matters
These disparities matter because expected-goals metrics are widely used to separate true performance from luck. When a player’s underlying numbers remain strong despite poor results, it suggests upside – either through personal regression toward career norms or improved team defensive support. Conversely, persistent discrepancies can conceal larger roster or goaltending problems that limit a team’s ability to convert individual performance into wins. For clubs and fans, recognising which players were unlucky helps set realistic expectations for recovery and roster decisions ahead of the next season.
Mini Q&A
Who are the five players identified as the unluckiest in 2025-26?
Nico Hischier, Brandon Tanev, Tomas Hertl, William Eklund and Anders Lee.
Which player had the largest shortfall between expected goals and actual goals?
Anders Lee had 41.9 expected goals but only 19 actual goals; several others also scored well below their xG totals, such as Nico Hischier (28 goals on 35.1 xG) and Tomas Hertl (24 goals on 39.1 xG).
Which player recorded a 0.0 personal shooting percentage in 2025-26?
Brandon Tanev recorded a 0.0 personal shooting percentage while playing 56 games that season.
What role did team goaltending play in these cases?
Poor goaltending amplified misfortune for several players: New Jersey’s goaltending was described as abysmal behind Nico Hischier; Vegas goalies posted a .843 save percentage behind Tomas Hertl; and San Jose goalies allowed about 14 more goals than expected when William Eklund was on the ice, corresponding to an on-ice save percentage of.840 for Eklund.
Coach Mark Comment
The practical coaching response is to keep players getting to productive areas rather than chasing low-percentage offence. For Hertl and Lee, the priority is sustaining shot volume and net-front presence; for Hischier and Eklund, stronger team defending can limit the damage when on-ice save percentage drops. The underlying numbers suggest there is no need to abandon the habits that created those chances.
What Comes Next
All five players head into the upcoming season hoping for better bounces and statistical regression in their favour.
IHM Final View
This ranking highlights measurable misfortune rather than proving decline. For Hischier, Hertl, Eklund, Tanev and Lee, a shooting rebound, better on-ice goaltending or both could make the next season look markedly different.
