We cannot ignore Washington’s games, as Alexander Ovechkin continues his pursuit of Wayne Gretzky’s legendary record. To set a new historic milestone, he needs to score 895 goals, and every game matters. However, it’s not just about following his journey but also understanding in which matchups the likelihood of his goal is higher and where it’s lower.

Analyzing the statistics, we can see that Ovechkin has already scored against Minnesota this season, as well as in games against Winnipeg. However, it’s crucial to consider the playing style of the Wild: they are actively working to strengthen their defense and often use a tight neutral zone trap (a defensive system where players clog the neutral zone to limit attacking space), which can make it difficult for Ovechkin to find shooting positions. Additionally, Minnesota employs a low-pressure forecheck (a forechecking strategy where they apply minimal pressure in the offensive zone, focusing on defensive stability), reducing Washington’s ability to generate quick counterattacks—one of their key offensive strengths.

Betting on Ovechkin to score in this matchup doesn’t seem like the most reliable option. However, that doesn’t mean Washington won’t deliver a strong offensive performance. They remain one of the best teams in the regular season and consistently showcase high offensive efficiency (expected goals per 60—the expected number of goals per 60 minutes). Based on this, two betting options stand out: Washington’s individual total over 3.5 goals or Washington to win in regulation.

Personally, I would go with Washington to win in regulation. First, the odds on this option are higher than on goal totals. Second, Washington has immense motivation—they need to pull away from Winnipeg in the race for the Presidents’ Trophy. While this trophy doesn’t guarantee playoff success, it remains a prestigious and valuable achievement.

Therefore, Washington must play for the win, and if they succeed, Ovechkin will likely contribute to the scoresheet—though not necessarily with a goal of his own.

NHL | Total odds 2.18 Result:Lost

Mark Lehtonen