Date: April 15, 2025
Author: Mark Lehtonen, former Finnish coach

Current Form of Both Teams

St. Louis Blues are currently eighth in the Western Conference with 94 points, walking a fine line between playoff qualification and elimination. After a solid winning streak, they’ve entered what’s often called an offensive stagnation phase — a period where scoring opportunities are created but poorly converted — and lost three consecutive games.

In their latest outing against Seattle, goaltender Jordan Binnington struggled with a low save percentage (ratio of shots saved) of just 82.3%, allowing 3 goals on only 17 shots. A concerning sign heading into a must-win matchup.

However, the top line of Schenn – Kyrou – Buchnevich remains highly dangerous. The Blues average over 3 goals per home game, largely thanks to their highly efficient power play unit (offensive advantage with more players due to opponent’s penalty).

Roster Update

• Injured: Texier, Holloway, Krug
• Expected starting pair: Defensive duo focusing on defensive zone coverage (strategic positioning to protect the goal area)

Utah’s Momentum

Utah has no playoff hopes but plays with surprising intensity. They’ve won three of their last four games, including a dominant 5–3 victory over Dallas where they converted 100% of their power play opportunities.

Coach Tourigny’s squad is known for its aggressive use of stretch passes (long passes from the defensive zone to create fast breaks). Yet, their defensive play remains inconsistent, averaging 3 goals conceded per game — especially weak in the second period, with a 82:90 goal ratio in that frame.

Head-to-Head and Trends

Two of their last three meetings this season have seen 6+ goals. In the most recent clash, the Blues came out on top 2–1 in a gritty game full of dump-and-chase scenarios (shooting the puck deep and aggressively forechecking to regain possession).

Prediction by Mark Lehtonen

Given the Blues’ must-win situation, Utah’s defensive inconsistencies, and solid offensive rhythm in St. Louis’ top line, I’m expecting an open and goal-rich game. Both teams rely heavily on transition game (rapid switch from defense to offense), which typically results in a high number of shots and scoring chances.

Pick: Over 6 Total Goals
Odds: 2.15 Result:Won

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Everyone is watching Alexander Ovechkin. Every time he steps onto the ice, each puck touch has the potential to become historic. Once again, the Washington vs. Buffalo matchup draws significant attention—the intrigue surrounding Ovechkin’s pursuit of Gretzky’s record keeps both fans and analysts on edge.

Teams at Opposite Ends of the Standings

These two teams occupy opposite ends of the league standings. Washington is confidently leading the conference and contending for the regular-season title, while Buffalo hasn’t reached the playoffs in years.

In addition to the difference in class, fatigue is an important factor. For Buffalo, this will be their second game in two days—a significant challenge, especially considering that the Sabres rely on a high-tempo transition game (a style characterized by rapid shifts from defense to offense with swift changes in direction). Maintaining this intensity in back-to-back games without adequate rest is difficult.

Meanwhile, Washington has had ample time to recover, giving the Capitals a clear physical advantage. They can execute their typical grind-down cycle offense (a methodical approach involving sustained pressure in the offensive zone through controlled puck possession and systematic player rotations), which is particularly effective against a fatigued Buffalo defense.

Betting Insights: Promising Options

Everyone is waiting for Ovechkin to break Gretzky’s legendary record, but the key question remains: how likely is it for him to score in this game? It is important to note that Buffalo employs a passive box penalty kill (a conservative penalty-killing system focused on protecting the area in front of the net), which may provide Ovechkin opportunities to shoot from his preferred position in the left faceoff circle. This increases his chances of scoring, especially on power plays.

However, a more reliable betting option appears to be on Washington’s team total, with over 4 goals. The Capitals are a strong offensive unit, and Buffalo’s fatigue could lead to multiple defensive breakdowns, particularly in the second and third periods.

Another solid pick is wagering on Washington to win with a -1 handicap. If the Capitals take control of the game, they should be able to secure a victory by at least two goals.

Conclusion

Washington holds significant advantages: they lead the conference, have had sufficient time to recover, and are facing a team struggling defensively. Buffalo’s fatigue and subpar penalty-kill system could result in multiple goals for the Capitals.

Optimal betting selections:
Washington team total over 4 goals
Washington to win with a -1 handicap
Ovechkin to score (especially on power play situations)

We anticipate a dominant performance from Washington and, potentially, another historic step for Ovechkin on his quest for the record.

NHL | Total odds 2.55 Result:Won

Mark Lehtonen

We cannot ignore Washington’s games, as Alexander Ovechkin continues his pursuit of Wayne Gretzky’s legendary record. To set a new historic milestone, he needs to score 895 goals, and every game matters. However, it’s not just about following his journey but also understanding in which matchups the likelihood of his goal is higher and where it’s lower.

Analyzing the statistics, we can see that Ovechkin has already scored against Minnesota this season, as well as in games against Winnipeg. However, it’s crucial to consider the playing style of the Wild: they are actively working to strengthen their defense and often use a tight neutral zone trap (a defensive system where players clog the neutral zone to limit attacking space), which can make it difficult for Ovechkin to find shooting positions. Additionally, Minnesota employs a low-pressure forecheck (a forechecking strategy where they apply minimal pressure in the offensive zone, focusing on defensive stability), reducing Washington’s ability to generate quick counterattacks—one of their key offensive strengths.

Betting on Ovechkin to score in this matchup doesn’t seem like the most reliable option. However, that doesn’t mean Washington won’t deliver a strong offensive performance. They remain one of the best teams in the regular season and consistently showcase high offensive efficiency (expected goals per 60—the expected number of goals per 60 minutes). Based on this, two betting options stand out: Washington’s individual total over 3.5 goals or Washington to win in regulation.

Personally, I would go with Washington to win in regulation. First, the odds on this option are higher than on goal totals. Second, Washington has immense motivation—they need to pull away from Winnipeg in the race for the Presidents’ Trophy. While this trophy doesn’t guarantee playoff success, it remains a prestigious and valuable achievement.

Therefore, Washington must play for the win, and if they succeed, Ovechkin will likely contribute to the scoresheet—though not necessarily with a goal of his own.

NHL | Total odds 2.18 Result:Lost

Mark Lehtonen